The Socio-Economic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households

New Study: Short-term humanitarian aid alone insufficient to address severe deterioration in employment, income, access to essential services and food security.

Economic revival, social protection, and infrastructure rehabilitation are critical for urban recovery in Sudan.

Nairobi, 12 November 2024 – Eighteen months of war have deeply affected urban households in Sudan: 31 percent have been displaced, full-time employment has plummeted by half, over 70 percent of the urban households in Sudan had all or some of school-aged kids stop attending school, and only one out of seven urban households can access full health services—concluded a new joint study from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), launched today.

"The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households" study provides a comprehensive assessment of how the ongoing conflict affects urban households in Sudan. With two-thirds of the fighting concentrated in cities of over 100,000 people, understanding impacts of the war on urban livelihoods is crucial for addressing both immediate economic challenges and long-term development obstacles. The study is based on analyses of a comprehensive survey of urban households across the country that both organizations conducted between May 2024 and July 2024, including 3,000 households.

"The ongoing conflict is intensifying already critical challenges, including widespread food insecurity," said Khalid Siddig, Senior Research Fellow and Program Leader for the Sudan Strategy Support Program at IFPRI. "In 2022, before the conflict began, only half of the population reported being food secure. Since then, the proportion of food-secure urban households has plunged from approximately 54 percent to just 20 percent.”

The study observes that while the share of the population receiving assistance has increased overall during the conflict, a substantial 76 percent of the population reported receiving no assistance at all. Most reported relying on personal networks of family members and friends, rather than government institutions, international humanitarian agencies or domestic civil society organizations.

“This study reveals significantly deepening vulnerabilities that Sudanese urban households are facing today on many fronts. No single intervention can adequately address this unfolding and multifaceted development crisis” stressed Luca Renda, UNDP Resident Representative in Sudan. “Expanding immediate short-term humanitarian relief is critical to help people survive and cope, but it will not be sufficient. It must be coupled with longer-term, development focused interventions that can help foster resilience and enable recovery.”

The study emphasizes that addressing the challenges facing urban households in Sudan requires comprehensive, holistic multi-sectoral responses that go beyond a focus on alleviating immediate suffering to lay solid foundations for a sustainable recovery and durable resilience. Key actions required include:

• Implementing economic recovery programs that prioritize microfinance and business development services for more stable self-employment, support to small business, and vocational training.
• Expanding urban agricultural initiatives to help diversify food sources and offer sustainable access to the components of nutritious diets.
• Improving healthcare access by immediately deploying mobile health clinics while restoring and expanding affordable healthcare services.
• Restoring remote learning solutions and platforms as well as community-based centres to ensure that Sudan’s human capital is not irreversibly harmed, while working on rebuilding the education system with a focus on providing financial assistance to affected families.
• Increasing private-public partnerships and investment in decentralized systems, such as solar energy, rainwater harvesting and local sanitation solutions while working on restoring water, sanitation, and electricity infrastructure systems.
• Expanding and strengthening formal social protection programs to foster greater economic resilience, reduce reliance on informal networks and ensure that aid reaches the most vulnerable.
• Prioritizing housing, healthcare, and livelihood opportunities for displaced households.

Additional Key Findings

• The proportion of urban households reporting having no income or employment has " surged to 18 percent compared to 1.6 percent pre-conflict. Unemployment is projected to surpass 45 percent by the end of 2024.
• While Sudan is now among four countries in the world with the highest prevalence of acute malnutrition, estimated at 13.6 percent, nearly half of the urban population faces moderate to severe food insecurity.
• Over 56 percent of urban households reported being in poorer or much poorer health than they were pre-conflict, as access to full health services dropped dramatically from 78 percent to 15.5 percent.
• While 63.6 percent of urban households reported that all school-age children in the household have ceased attendance, over 88 percent had at least one school-aged child ceased attending school since the conflict began.

• Access to piped water has decreased from 72.5 percent to 51.6 percent, while nearly 90 percent of households reported deteriorating reliability of electricity supply.

   

The Arabic version of the report will be available shortly

For more information and to arrange interviews, please contact:

UNDP   |   Robert Few | UNDP County Office in Sudan

                  Robert.Few@UNDP.org

IFPRI     |   Evgeniya Anisimova | Media and Digital Engagement Manager | IFPRI – Washington DC

                  e.anisimova@cgiar.org | +1 (202) 726-4394

About IFPRI

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition. IFPRI’s strategic research aims to identify and analyse alternative international and country-led strategies and policies for meeting food and nutrition needs in low- and middle-income countries, with particular emphasis on poor and vulnerable groups in those countries, gender equity, and sustainability. It is a research centre of CGIAR, a worldwide partnership engaged in agricultural research for development. www.ifpri.org 

About UNDP

UNDP is the leading United Nations organization fighting to end the injustice of poverty, inequality, and climate change. Working with our broad network of experts and partners in 170 countries, we help nations to build integrated, lasting solutions for people and the planet. http://www.undp.org